← 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
Water FractalTier 2
at 18th Jan Mox Saga PTM Regional
decks
4
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
6-10-3
overall winrate
39.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1250
· median 1210
· range 1147–1432
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1179
Q3 1340
1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.2% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 35.2% | -7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Diao Chan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
